HEADING FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN THE AMAZON: A SYSTEMIC APPROACH AND PROPOSALS TO COMBAT DEFORESTATION

Objective: The objective of this research is to carry out a comprehensive literature review, focusing on the period from 1988 to 2022, to systematically analyze the main anthropogenic activities responsible for deforestation in the Brazilian Legal Amazon. Theoretical reference: The theoretical framework of this research is based on the existing literature on deforestation in the Amazon, covering concepts related to anthropogenic activities, environmental impacts and conservation policies. Methodology: The method employed consists of a thorough analysis of the main scientific publication platforms and databases to compile relevant information on deforestation in the Legal Amazon. In addition, the research uses a systemic analysis to assess the future of deforestation.


INTRODUCTION
The Amazon, a region of global notoriety, is endowed with unique biodiversity and plays a unique role in the environmental context (Alfaro, 2014;Ellwanger et al., 2020;Rodrigues, 1989).Although this region is rich in potential, there is still much to be explored and optimized in its vast heritage (Trindade et al., 2022).
However, in recent decades, this region has faced challenges arising from various human activities, including the disorderly expansion of agriculture, logging, illegal mining, among others (Castro & Pinto, 2018;Gomes et al., 2019).The alarming increase in deforestation in recent years raises worrying prospects (Galúcio & Prudente, 2019).Without direct measures by 2050, the Amazon rainforest is at risk of reaching a point of irreversible decline (Gomes et al., 2019).
Recently, there has been an increase in awareness about the importance of environmental preservation in the Amazon and the urgent need to effectively combat deforestation in the region (Waroux et al., 2019).Numerous legal and social motivations highlight the importance of ensuring the maintenance of the forest and the balanced use of its resources, principles guaranteed in the country's current Federal Constitution (Brazil, 1988).
However, the actions resulting from these public policies have had limited results, with deforestation persisting as a significant threat to the Amazon in Brazil (Carvalho et al., 2019).
The use of modern techniques, such as database studies and time series analysis, is crucial for understanding and seeking solutions to environmental issues, representing a viable alternative to assist in the preservation of the Amazon in Brazil (Santos et al., 2020 ;Zissou et al., 2020).
Given this scenario, the present work proposes to carry out a systemic analysis, based on a comprehensive review of data and literature on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, in the significant period between the promulgation of the current Federative Constitution in 1988 and the year 2022.The objective is to systemically analyze the main anthropogenic activities that contribute to deforestation, considering local contexts, in order to highlight specific priority areas and points for preservation actions.

MATERIAL AND METHODS
The region known as the Brazilian Amazon, or Legal Amazon, as illustrated in Figure 1, covers an area of 5,217,423 km², representing approximately 61% of the Brazilian territory (Brazil, 2007b).As mentioned previously, this vast area comprises nine Brazilian states: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, Roraima and Tocantins (Brasil, 2007ab).

Figure 1
Location Map of the Legal Amazon.

COLLECTION AND CURATION OF DEFORESTATION DATA
This scientific research aimed to analyze recent data, employing queries in digital databases with a defined interval between the years 1988 and 2022.In addition, data were acquired from the Project for Monitoring Deforestation in the Legal Amazon by Satellite (PRODES) of the Government of Brazil.The procedures adopted followed established methodologies in database studies (Bittencourt & Paula, 2012;Gomes et al., 2018;Sombra et al., 2020;Trindade et al., 2022;Zissou et al., 2021).
Data curation was carried out in Python programming language to ensure the quality of information in this study.Digital curation is crucial to guarantee the integrity and preservation of data in research, especially in a context of increasing dependence on digital technologies (Sayão & Sales, 2012).It covers data management from collection to long-term preservation, aiming to ensure its reliability and usefulness.In this context, this research seeks to systematize and make available data on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.
When exploring deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon using data provided by PRODES, significant variations in rates are observed over the period from 1988 to 2023, as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2
Deforestation rates in the Legal Amazon, from 1988Amazon, from to 2023 Source: Own preparation, data obtained from the PRODES system (PRODES, 2024).Furthermore, it is evident that, since the beginning of this historical series expressed in km², there has been a decrease in deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon in recent years, especially since the second half of the 2000s (from 2005 onwards).Initially, rates were around 21,000 km² in 1988, but from 2005 onwards, they remained consistently below 20,000 km², showing variations, and reaching their minimum value in 2012, with the rate expressed at around 4,600 km².In 2023, the deforestation rate was 9,001 km², the lowest value since 2019.
In summary, in recent years, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has reduced significantly, recording a decrease of almost 10,000 km², from 21,100 km² at the beginning of the series in 1988 to around 11,600 km² in 2022, a drop of approximately 45%.However, it is clear that these values are still not considered acceptable in terms of environmental preservation of a biome as crucial as the Amazon.Desirably, rates should decline further, ideally approaching values close to zero.The perception of deforestation rates becomes more evident, with an accumulated value of deforestation, which continues to evolve from 1988 to 2023, as shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3
Accumulated deforestation in the Legal Amazon, from 1988Amazon, from to 2023 Source: Own preparation, data obtained from the PRODES system (PRODES, 2024).
From the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, the Amazon has been the scene of a series of significant social and economic transformations, largely driven by territorial occupation policies promoted by the Brazilian government.These policies, initially designed to promote economic development and national integration, encouraged intense migratory flows to the region, traditionally seen as a "demographic void" (Hogan, 1997).The consequence was an accelerated expansion of the agricultural frontier and a substantial increase in deforestation, with more than 490,870 km² of Amazon forest lost between 1988 and 2023, as indicated in the data analyzes represented in Figures 2 and 3. Figure 4    It is observed that the states of Pará and Mato Grosso have alternated in leadership, presenting the highest deforestation rates since the beginning of the series analyzed .Together with Amazonas, which has gained prominence in recent years, these states correspond to the largest in the region and in Brazil.These high rates reflect geographic, social and political factors specific to each state.Table 1 presents a ranking of deforestation by states in the Legal Amazon.In Table 1, it is notable that the states of Pará and Mato Grosso are responsible for 66% of deforestation in the Legal Amazon.These states, as well as others in the Brazilian Amazon, have experienced considerable population growth in recent years (IBGE, 2023) and investments in the areas of mining and agriculture.The relationship between decreasing native forest areas and population growth highlights the complexity of the Amazon region, not only as a rich ecosystem, but also as a home to human populations.Studies of this type must necessarily consider these anthropogenic factors.
As for the states with the lowest deforestation rates, Amapá, Roraima and Tocantins stand out, each with rates below 2%.This preservation is the result of factors such as more recent population movements, since these states are more recent in terms of creation in Brazil.
Its areas are still preserved, in part, due to the reduced population and limited anthropogenic actions.Effective local environmental preservation policies also contributed to the maintenance of these areas.
The results indicate a reduction in intensive and harmful activities in the region, showing that practices traditionally considered harmful, such as agriculture, have evolved over time, assuming less aggressive configurations.Activities such as integration between crops, agriculture and forestry (ILPF) have become more common.
In the context of agriculture, there is a need to use resources sustainably, highlighting the importance of agrobiodiversity, which refers to the richness of biodiversity present in agricultural systems (Santilli, 2009;Frausin et al., 2020).The adoption of modern agricultural techniques, such as the consortium of agricultural activities with environmental preservation, emerges as a solution for the production of inputs and the well-being of local, regional and global populations (CONAB, 2007).
It is crucial to highlight that agriculture or agribusiness are not the most harmful activities in the region, compared to others, such as illegal mining (Mataveli et al., 2023).
Currently, agriculture in the region seeks to be sustainable, adopting less harmful models, becoming an important source of income and development.When managed properly, it can be an ally of development and preservation in the region (Martorano, 2016).
The data presented contribute significantly to a better understanding of deforestation and agrobiodiversity in the Amazon region.According to Trindade et al. (2022), studies that provide databases are fundamental for understanding these and other issues in the region and the country.

TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS
In view of the above, a predictive analysis of the deforestation data presented was carried out with the Prophet package for time series analysis, the objective of which is to estimate the advancement of deforestation in the Legal Amazon until the year 2050.Prophet, developed by the research team at Facebook is especially suited to predicting data trends, which makes it ideal for analyzing and projecting deforestation, a phenomenon influenced by seasonal economic, political and social variables.The package is available in the Python and R programming languages (Taylor & Letha, 2023).
The Prophet Package operates based on a decomposable additive model for time series forecasting, where the modeling is done considering that the observed data can be explained by the sum of several components, including trends, seasonality and holidays or special events.
Mathematically, the model can be described as: Being: 11 The trend component, g(t), is typically modeled using linear or logistic growth functions, allowing Prophet to adjust for different growth patterns in the data over time.For seasonality, s(t), Prophet uses the Fourier transform to capture seasonal patterns on multiple time scales, which is particularly useful for data with multiple seasonal frequencies.The h(t) component, in turn, is modeled by adding a specific effect for each holiday or event, allowing the model to capture specific impacts that these occasions may have on the data.
Additionally, Prophet makes it easy to include changepoints in the trend function, allowing the model to adapt to abrupt changes in the data trajectory.This flexibility is crucial for modeling time series of messaging platforms, where unexpected events can cause significant variations in message volume.The combination of these features makes Prophet a powerful and flexible tool for time series forecasting, capable of adjusting and predicting complex dynamics in temporal data, such as deforestation dynamics.
To understand the dynamics of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, it was crucial to analyze how different economic activities influence the loss of forest cover.Among these activities, the growth of cattle herds, the expansion of pasture areas, soybean cultivation and mining are often cited as the main drivers of deforestation in the Legal Amazon.To investigate the relationships between these factors and deforestation, correlation analyses, specifically using the Pearson coefficient, were employed.The use of Pearson's correlation coefficient, when analyzing the drivers of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, offers valuable insights for understanding and combating deforestation, highlighting the importance of integrated approaches that consider the complexity of interactions between human activities and the environment .
Using deforestation data and predictive analysis, it is possible to have a view of the whole from a systemic perspective that encompasses the environmental, economic and social domains in its analyzes and proposed solutions for the decline in the deforestation rate.
Systemic analysis allows us to identify and understand the connections and feedbacks between different components of the Amazon system.For example, deforestation is not just an environmental issue; it is deeply intertwined with economic factors, such as the demand for land for agriculture and livestock, and with social aspects, including poverty, inequality and governance.Thus, interventions that only target the environmental aspect, without considering the economic and social dimensions, are doomed to failure or generating unintended consequences.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Based on the data curation, a prediction of deforestation in the Legal Amazon until the year 2050 was made, using the Prophet time series package, as shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6
Prediction of the advancement of deforested area in the Legal Amazon, until the year 2050 Source: Own preparation, data obtained from the PRODES system (PRODES, 2024).
Even with a 45% drop in deforestation rates in the 2010s, as shown in Figure 2, if rates remain in the range between 10 thousand km² and 20 thousand km² per year, the forecast is that in 2030 the deforested area will be approximately of 567 thousand km² and in 2050 it will be approximately 748 thousand km².
This forecast reflects the trajectory of exploitation and environmental loss that began to have palliative solutions only from 2005 onwards, thanks to a set of interconnected factors.The promulgation of Brazil's federal constitution in 1988 (Brazil, 1988), by ensuring environmental preservation as a fundamental right, signaled a new phase in the country's relationship with its natural resources.This, combined with the stabilization of population growth and the adoption of stricter inspection policies from the perspective of the new Brazilian forestry code (Brazil, 2012), began to slow the advance of deforestation.
The technological revolution also plays a crucial role in this paradigm shift.The use of satellite images for environmental monitoring, together with the dissemination of information via the internet, has allowed for more effective monitoring and greater public awareness of the challenges faced by the Amazon.These technological advances, combined with greater international and local pressure for sustainable development practices, have contributed significantly to efforts to reduce deforestation in the region.
In 2023, the deforestation rate was 9 thousand km², a victory that demands continuous effort, towards a zero deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon by 2030.The fight to achieve a zero deforestation rate in the Legal Amazon is more than a issue of environmental preservation; It is a matter of global urgency that is rooted in the survival of critical ecosystems, mitigating climate change, and safeguarding biodiversity and the livelihoods of millions of people.The objective of completely eliminating deforestation in the region is vital to prevent the Amazon from reaching the so-called point of no return, a stage in which environmental degradation becomes irreversible and the biome can no longer sustain itself, leading to the collapse of its ecosystem.
To achieve zero deforestation, it is important that pasture areas, soybean planting and mining are regulated more vigorously so that they do not increase the area of deforestation in the Legal Amazon.Legislation more focused on the number of cattle herds is also necessary, as 43% of the cattle herd is concentrated in the Amazon biome (SEEG, 2023).Figure 7 shows the evolution of deforestation compared to the increase in cattle herds and the advancement of pasture and mining areas.

Figure 7
Relationship between the increase in cattle herds and pasture area and deforestation in the Legal Amazon.The uncontrolled expansion of soybeans and mining activities have been two of the main drivers of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, bringing with them significant impacts on both the environment and local communities.Figure 8 shows the evolution of deforestation compared to the advancement of mining and soybean plantation areas in the Legal Amazon.

Figure 8
Relationship between the advancement of mining and soybean areas and deforestation in the Legal Amazon.Figure 9 presents the Pearson correlation matrix applied to the predictor variables (cattle herd, pasture area, mining area and soybean area) with deforestation in the Legal Amazon.

Figure 9
Pearson correlation matrix relating deforestation in the Legal Amazon with the number of cattle herds, pasture area, mining area and soybean area (R2=0.99).
From the interpretation of Figure 9, the strong correlation between deforestation data and data on cattle herds (0.99), pasture area (1.00), mining area (0.83) and soybean area (0.94) is notable.The expansion of soybeans and mining activities have been two of the main drivers of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, bringing with them significant impacts on both the environment and local communities.
These activities, therefore, represent significant challenges for the sustainability of the Legal Amazon, requiring integrated policies that promote economic development combined with environmental conservation and social justice.The implementation of sustainable agricultural practices, effective enforcement against illegal deforestation and the promotion of economic alternatives for local communities are essential to mitigate the negative impacts of soy and mining and to ensure the preservation of this crucial biome for the planet.
Thus, the Amazon experience highlights the need for systemic approaches that recognize and integrate the complex interdependencies between the environment, economy and society.Through an analysis that considers both historical factors and contemporary innovations, it is possible to identify strategies that promote sustainable development, ensuring the preservation of natural resources vital to the future of the planet and the well-being of future generations.
The relationship between the environment, economy and society is intrinsically complex and multifaceted, reflecting a system in which actions in one sphere can have profound and often unpredictable effects on others.The recent history of the Brazilian Amazon vividly illustrates this systemic dynamic, revealing how the interaction between economic development, public policies and environmental conservation can shape the destiny of one of the most important biomes in the world.

AREA
Controlling the advancement of cattle herds and pasture areas in the Legal Amazon requires a systemic approach that addresses the underlying causes of deforestation and promotes sustainable soil and animal management practices.These solutions must integrate environmental, economic and social considerations to be effective and sustainable in the long term.Here are some strategies that can be implemented: 1. Sustainable Intensification of Livestock: Promote sustainable intensive management techniques that increase livestock productivity per area, thus reducing the need for pasture expansion.This includes improving feed quality, animal health programs and genetic improvement; By adopting these strategies within a systemic approach, it is possible to reconcile livestock production with environmental conservation in the Legal Amazon, thus contributing to the sustainability of the biome, global climate stability and the socioeconomic development of the region.

SYSTEMIC SOLUTIONS FOR REGULATION OF MINING AND SOY AREAS
To face the unbridled advance of the soybean area and mining activities in the Legal Amazon, it is essential to adopt a systemic approach that considers the interconnections between the environment, economy and society.These solutions must be multifaceted, encompassing public policies, technological innovations, economic incentives and the active participation of local communities.Here are some strategies that can be implemented to control the advancement of soy and mining in a sustainable way: By adopting a systemic approach, recognizing the complexity of interactions between the different elements that make up the issue of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, it is possible to find balanced solutions that promote economic development, environmental conservation and social well-being.
These actions are in line with the conservation units (CU) in the Legal Amazon, they play an important socioeconomic role, supporting the subsistence of local and indigenous communities through the sustainable use of natural resources and ecological tourism.They are also essential for scientific research, providing places to study biodiversity, ecological processes and the impacts of climate change.
Although Conservation Units in the Legal Amazon are vital for protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services, they face considerable challenges.Among them, illegal deforestation, predatory extraction of resources, forest fires and the expansion of economic activities that compromise environmental sustainability stand out.To overcome these obstacles, effective management and strict supervision of these areas are essential.This includes the implementation of robust public policies and the adoption of proposed solutions, which aim to conserve and sustainable use of natural resources.Furthermore, the engagement and participation of local communities in the management of these units is essential.These joint actions are crucial not only for the preservation of the Legal Amazon, but also for ensuring the well-being of future generations, maintaining the balance between environmental conservation and socioeconomic development.

CONCLUSION
The current study carries out a systemic analysis of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, offering an essential database for future investigations related to related topics.The complexity of the issue of deforestation in the Amazon involves several factors, from population growth to pressure for economic activities in the region.The observed data indicate, however, a significant reduction in deforestation in recent years.
It is crucial to continue raising awareness among the population about the importance of environmental preservation and seek solutions that promote economic development without causing damage to the environment.Furthermore, there is a growing need to raise awareness among new generations about the importance of environmental preservation, seeking harmony between social development and environmental conservation.
The systemic approach of this research reveals the complexity of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, highlighting the interconnection between anthropogenic activities, such as extensive farming and illegal mining, and their environmental impacts.By integrating a comprehensive literature review with a temporal analysis, the research projects future scenarios and emphasizes the urgency of effective public policies.The proposed sustainable alternatives are important to mitigate deforestation and promote the preservation of agrobiodiversity.Thus, the research contributes significantly to the understanding and sustainable management of the Legal Amazon.
presents a comparison between the area deforested in 1988 (21,050 km²) and in 2022 (481,869 km²) in the Legal Amazon.

Figure 4
Figure 4Comparison between the deforested area in 1988(a) and 2022(b) in the Legal Amazon -

Figure 5
Figure 5Accumulated deforestation in the LegalAmazon, from 1988Amazon, from   to 2023 (a) In 2022, the cattle herd reached 96 million heads.(b) In 2022, the pasture area reached an area of approximately 545 thousand km2.Source: Own preparation, data obtained from the PRODES system (PRODES, 2024) and PPM (IBGE, 2024).In recent decades, the conversion of forests into pastures has reached alarming levels in some of the main states in the Amazon region, as shown in Figure7.Leading this transformation, the state of Pará recorded the conversion of approximately 185 thousand km² of forest into pasture areas .Following closely, Mato Grosso saw a change of around 155 thousand km² of its forest territory to pastures.Rondônia, with a transformation of 74 thousand km², Maranhão, with 54 thousand km², and Tocantins, with 45 thousand km², are also among the states with the largest converted areas.These numbers highlight a worrying trend of deforestation in the Legal Amazon, highlighting growing pressure on these vital ecosystems.
(a) In 2022, the mining area reached an area of approximately 3.14 thousand km2.(b) In 2022, the soybean area reached an area of approximately 130 thousand km2.Source: Own preparation, data obtained from the PRODES system (PRODES, 2024) and PPM (IBGE, 2024)Soy, in particular, has been a vector of transformation of the Amazon landscape, with vast areas of forest being cut down to make way for extensive monocultures.This conversion not only results in the direct loss of biodiversity, but also alters hydrological and carbon cycles, contributing to global climate change.Furthermore, the intensive agriculture model associated with soy production often leads to soil degradation, reducing its fertility and limiting the land's future use capacity.On the other hand, mining in the Legal Amazon has caused deforestation and contamination of rivers and soil, affecting the health and way of life of indigenous and local populations.The extraction of mineral resources involves the removal of vegetation cover and the use of toxic chemicals, such as mercury, which pollute waterways and food chains.In addition to environmental impacts, mining often leads to social conflicts, displacement of communities and human rights violations, exacerbating social and economic inequalities in the region.

2 . 3 .
Recovery of Degraded Areas: Encourage the recovery of degraded pastures through soil management and revegetation techniques, making these areas productive again and reducing the pressure for new deforestation areas; Agroforestry and Silvopastoral Systems: Encourage the adoption of agroforestry and Silvopastoral systems that integrate trees, agricultural crops and livestock in the same area.These systems can increase biodiversity, improve soil and water quality, and provide multiple sources of income for farmers; 4. Product Certification: Develop and promote certification systems for meat and other products derived from livestock, which ensure sustainable and traceable production practices, thus encouraging the market to prefer products that do not contribute to deforestation; 5. Public Policies and Tax Incentives: Implement public policies and tax incentives that favor sustainable livestock farming and penalize management practices that lead to deforestation.This could include higher taxes for large deforesters and subsidies or credits for producers who adopt sustainable practices; 6. Monitoring and Inspection: Strengthen monitoring and inspection of land use, using cutting-edge technology such as satellite images to identify illegal deforestation and unauthorized expansion of pastures; 7. Education and Training: Provide technical training and environmental education for livestock farmers on sustainable livestock and soil management practices, highlighting the long-term economic and environmental benefits; 8. Participation and Dialogue with Local Communities: Involve local communities, including indigenous peoples and small producers, in planning and implementing sustainable practices, ensuring that their needs and knowledge are considered; 9. Research Promotion: Support research into sustainable management practices, animal genetics for productive efficiency, and development of value chains that promote sustainability.

Table 1
Ranking of deforestation by states in the Legal Amazon represents the forecast for the instant t, h(t) covers the effects of specific holidays or events, and ϵt is the model error, assuming it is normally distributed noise.Heading for Sustainability in the Amazon: a Systemic Approach and Proposals to Combat Deforestation ___________________________________________________________________________ Rev. Gest.Soc.Ambient.| Miami | v.18.n.1 | p.1-23 | e07518 | 2024.
Promote certification systems for soy products and minerals that guarantee sustainable production and extraction practices.Traceability can help ensure that products sold do not contribute to new 1. Ecological-Economic Zoning (ZEE): Implement and strictly respect the ZEE to direct agricultural and mining activities to less sensitive areas, minimizing environmental impact and protecting vital ecosystems; 2. Certification and Traceability: