THE EVALUATION OF IMPACTS OF MULTI FACTOR MODEL ON TTC STOCK PRICE: A CASE IN REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY IN VIETNAM

Objectives: The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock price of a real estate firm, specifically Thanh Cong TCC, in Vietnam from 2014 to 2020. The study aims to assess both positive and negative influences of five macroeconomic variables on stock prices and to understand the overall business health reflected by stock fluctuations. Methods: This study utilizes a data collection method involving statistics, analysis, synthesis, comparison, and quantitative analysis to generate qualitative comments and discussion. Econometric methods, particularly regression analysis, are employed to evaluate the quantitative results and assess the impact of macroeconomic factors on stock prices. Results: The quantitative research reveals several key findings. Firstly, the stock price of Thanh Cong TCC (Y) exhibits a negative correlation with the lending rate (R) and GDP growth, indicating that higher lending rates and lower GDP growth negatively impact stock prices. Conversely, there is a positive correlation between stock prices and the risk-free rate (Rf), consumer price index (CPI), and VNINDEX, suggesting that these factors positively influence stock prices. Furthermore, the study identifies GDP growth and lending rates as having the highest impact on firm stock prices. Conclusion: In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of considering macroeconomic factors in understanding stock price fluctuations in real estate firms in developing countries like Vietnam. The findings emphasize the significant impact of lending rates and GDP growth on stock prices, indicating their pivotal role in shaping the business health and overall economic conditions. By recognizing these influences, firms like Thanh Cong TCC can better navigate market dynamics and make informed strategic decisions to enhance their performance and resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges.


INTRODUCTION
Real estate system in Vietnam in recent years plays a key role in helping the whole economy.In the context that GDP growth in Vietnam has been increasing during [2014][2015][2016][2017][2018][2019] and CPI goes down and up and Vietnam stock market has been growing much, it is necessary to evaluate impacts of internal and external macro economic factors on firm performance, esp.firm stock price.
Next, TCC (Thanh cong real estate) company has lots of projects such as: As one of the pioneering companies in the field of real estate investment, business and consulting in Vietnam since 1996.With business experience in the Real Estate market, a deep understanding of the Real Estate industry and Vietnam's economy.
Providing comprehensive, high quality and perfect real estate solutions for customers.
Create more added value for customers.Enhance sustainable investment returns for shareholders.Proud to contribute to the prestigious and successful Vietnamese real estate market.
Looking at the below chart, we find out that Thanh cong(TCC) stock price moves in the same trend with VN Index and GDP growth, although it fluctuates in a smaller range.The paper is organized as follows: after the introduction it is the research issues, literature review and methodology.Next, section 3 will cover methodology and data and section 4 presents main research findings/results.Section 5 gives us some discussion and conclusion and policy suggestion will be in the section 6.

RESEARCH ISSUES
The scope of this study will cover: Issue 1: What are the correlation and relationship among many economic factors: TCC stock price, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, VNIndex, S&P 500 and GDP growth?
Issue 2: What are the impacts of above macro economic factors on TCC stock price?Issue 3: Based on above discussion, we recommend some solutions regarding to risk management in incoming period.

LITERATURE REVIEW
Then, We summarize previous studies as follows:  This study mainly use combination of quantitative methods (OLS econometric model) and qualitative methods including synthesis, inductive and explanatory methods.And it emphasizes again important roles of risk management in sustainable modern management For quantitative analysis, the study is supported with OLS regression.
We build a regression model with Eview software to measure impacts of factors.
Beside, this paper also uses analytical and general data analysis method to measure and generate comments on the results, then suggest policies based on these analyses.

REGRESSION MODEL AND MAIN FINDINGS
In this section, we will find out the relationship between macro economic factors and public debt.

Scenario 1
Regression model with single variable: analyzing impact of GDP growth (G) on TCC stock price (Y) Note: C: constant Using Eview gives us the below results: if GDP growth increases, TCC stock price decreases.

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Here we see impacts of 5 macro factors, with the new variable: risk free rate (Rf), the above equation shows that TCC stock price (Y) has negative correlation with lending rate R and GDp growth, whereas it has positive correlation with Rf, CPI and VNINDEX.We also recognize that GDP growth and lending rate have the highest impact on firm stock price.

DISCUSSION AND FURTHER RESEARCHES
Through the regression equation with above macroeconomic variables, this research paper used updated data from 2014-2020 to analyze the regression equation via Eview in order to show that an increase in lending rate has a significant impact on decreasing firm stock price (Y).
Data are from observations in the past years, it is partly based on the market economic rules, and the research results are also affected by socio-economic characteristics in Vietnam such as: efficiency of public investment, waste of public investment, enterprise bankruptcy, and investment in areas that increase GDP such as production, electricity, etc. or investing in healthcare, environment and education sectors.We have not yet considered the impact of these factors.
Beside, we can analyze impact of another macro factor, for example, deposit rate when we add this variable into our regression model of public debt.Furthermore, we can add unemployment rate or public debt increase into our econometric model to measure the impact of these extra factors on stock price.

CONCLUSION AND POLICY SUGGESTION
Based on the above data analysis from our regression model, we would suggest the government, Ministry of Finance and State Bank of Vietnam consider to control inflation more rationally, i.e not increasing much and suitable with each economic development stage.
Governmental bodies and bank system also need to apply macro policies to stimulate economic growth, however not increasing lending rate too much, together with credit, operational and market risk management, corporate governance and controlling bad debt.
Generally speaking, managing TCC stock price depends on many factors, so the government need to use fiscal policy combined with monetary policies and socio-economic policies to reduce unemployment and stimulate economic growth, toward a good stock price management.
Finally, this research paper also helps to direct further future researches, for instance, we could add deposit rate and unemployment rate into our above econometric model to measure impacts of them on firm stock price.

Figure 1 TCC
Figure 1 TCC Stock price from the exact sciences to the understanding of human behavior and of social relations, realities that clearly involve relevant traces of unpredictability.Ahmad and Ramzan 2016 stated the macroeconomic factors have important concerns with stocks traded in the stock market and these factors make investors to choose the stock because investors are interested to know about the factors affecting the working of stock to manage their portfolios.Abrupt variations and unusual movements of macroeconomic variables cause the stock returns to fluctuate due to uncertainty of future gains.Duy 2015 mentioned through the evolution of interest rates and the VNI could see that the relationship between these two variables in the period 2005-2014 is the opposite.This relationship is shown in specific periods of the year the stock market proved quite sensitive to interest rates.When interest rates are low or high but the bearish stock market rally, and vice versa when the high interest rates the stock market decline.Source: Prepared by Authors (2024) Until now, many researches have been done in this public debt field, however, they just stop at analyzing internal macroeconomic factors on stock price.3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA This research paper establishes correlation among macro economic factors by using an econometric model to analyze impacts of multi macro economic factors in Vietnam such as: GDP growth, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate,… on TCC stock price.

First
of all, The below chart 1 shows us that Y has a positive correlation with GDP growth: The Evaluation of Impacts of Multi Factor Model on TTC Stock Price: a Case in Real Estate Industry in Vietnam ___________________________________________________________________________ Rev. Gest.Soc.Ambient.| Miami | v.18.n.9 | p.1-15 | e06672 | 2024.

Figure 2 TTC
Figure2TTC stock price (Y) vs. GDP growth in Vietnam(G)

Table 1
Summary of previous studies but insignificant to the banking industry stock return, the exchange rate is positive and significant to banking industry stock return and interest rate is negative and significant to banking industry stock return.Krishna 2015 investigated the nature of the causal relationships between stock prices and the key macro economic variables in BRIC countries.The empirical evidence shows that long-run and short-run relationship exists between macro economic variables and stock prices, but this relationship was not consistent for all of the BRIC countries.GomesEconomics is a fascinating field of knowledge, essentially because it is capable of applying rigorous notions and tools

Table 2
Statistics for macro economic factorsLooking at the above table, we recognize that standard deviation of exchange rate and VNIndex are the highest values.Whereas standard deviation of GDP growth and lending rate are the lowest values.